Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
